Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
